Tuesday, April 22, 2008
coming to america - no matter who is elected president.
this country will see between 3% and 5% inflation over the next 2-3 years.
the love affair with cheap oil and consumer debt is over, and it is time to pay the price.
world food prices will adversely affect the usa, not completely removed from its contentious biofuel policy.
the price of oil will fall from its record highs, but not below $90 a barrel or thereabouts, and when it does, the value of the currently weak dollar will climb as investors take their money out of the current safe haven of the oil market, and so interest rates will have to be raised to try and combat inflation.
(this is assuming that there aren't any oil disruptions during hurricane season, or in the outside oil producing nations..)
this is unavoidable (but nobody's got the balls to tell you).
a growing world food crisis and wall st. is acting like the worst is over and just waiting to set off again?
yesterday the dow jones industrial closed at 12,621.78, that's only around 11% off its record high set in october 2007 of 14,164.53.
only those companies that have strong overseas exposure will perform well, and i cannot see how wall st. can continue to ignore the very real effect of record gas prices on the american consumer.